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AAVE

Aave · Lending

55 /100
T4Speculative · #22 of 77
No engine yetCould move up ↑low likelihoodReviewed Oct 23, 2026

Score qualifies for T3; held by Value engine 1 (needs 2).

DemandSoundnessDurability
21 of 4524 of 4010 of 15

Key facts

SupplyFloat 96% of issued supply
  • Circulating 15.4M, 96%
  • Locked or unvested 563.4K, 4%
  • Max 16.0M
FDV / market cap
1.0x
$2.3B / $2.2B
Market cap
$2.2B
Price $142.97, 7d −7.7%

Market data: CoinGecko, Oct 24, 2026. Scores reviewed Oct 23, 2026.

Assessment

Aave earns real revenue, ~$88M over the trailing year, but little reaches holders: Aavenomics 3.0 sends bought AAVE to the Ecosystem Reserve under a capped ~$30M/yr budget, and nothing has been bought since Jun 24, 2026. Soundness is good: supply is fixed at 16M with zero issuance, any mint needs a binding AAVE vote, and 96% floats. The 2017 ETHLend ICO sold ~77% of LEND to the public, and the protocol has run 8.9 years without a $50M+ exploit. Upgrades pass on-chain votes with a ~1-day short-executor delay, and a 5-of-9 Guardian can pause reserves. What holds it back is routing: buybacks must resume and reach holders.

How value reaches holders

Aavenomics 3.0 (Aug 2026) routes revenue to buybacks, but bought AAVE goes to the Ecosystem Reserve (held, not burned), the budget is capped (~$30M/yr), and no AAVE has been bought since Jun 24, 2026; a committee-run $4M allowance 'to support buybacks' was set on Sep 5. Revenue ~$88M trailing year (~$61M annualized from 30d); the ~$400M figure is fees, mostly interest paid to depositors

Score anatomy

Demand

21 / 45: the stronger of two routes, plus adoption

Why would anyone hold it: does value reach the token, and is the network or product used today?

Holder routing engine input
2

Bought AAVE goes to the Ecosystem Reserve (buy-and-hold), and none has been bought since Jun 24, 2026

Small or discretionary flows, plumbing under 25%, or buy-and-hold into a treasuryHow this is scored

Revenue reality engine input
3
Monetary usage engine input
0

Collateral use sits inside Aave itself ($127M supplied on Aave v3), which no longer counts; third-party venues hold under $1M.

Trading onlymedium confidenceHow this is scored

Adoption ×3
5

Aave V3 TVL $16.9B, ~32% of all lending, with $649M fees TTM vs Morpho $205M; fees -25% YoY in a falling market while Morpho gains: still the reference lender

Reference: the category's default by a wide margin, the venue, network or asset others are measured againsthigh confidenceHow this is scored

Two routes, the stronger counts

01234510cash flowmoney
Revenue 3, minus 2 for routing 2 = cash flow 1. Money use 0. The engine is the stronger route: 1.

Soundness

24 / 40

Can a long-term holder trust the rules: supply, float, distribution and control?

Supply discipline ×3
4

Fixed 16M with zero issuance; the token proxy is upgradeable only by Aave Governance executors after an on-chain AAVE vote, so any mint needs a binding holder vote.

Under 1%/yr net without a hard cap, a hard cap with halvings issuing 1-3%/yr, or zero issuance where binding on-chain token governance could vote to mint morehigh confidenceHow this is scored

Float and unlocks ×1
4

Float 96% (15.4M of 16M); only the Ecosystem Reserve tail remains.

Small tails only, or 85%+ of supply liquidhigh confidenceHow this is scored

Distribution ×2
2

The Nov 2017 ETHLend ICO sold ~77% of LEND to the public; team, advisors and bounty kept ~23% (~3M of 16M AAVE, ~19%); the 3M Ecosystem Reserve moves only by on-chain governance vote

Insiders received 10-25%, or one organization directs 3-10%medium confidenceHow this is scored

Decentralization and security ×2
2

Aave v3 is upgraded by on-chain AAVE votes through Governance v3 with a ~1-day short-executor delay (7 days for governance changes), and a 5-of-9 Guardian can pause or freeze reserves

Attack cost $10-100M, an unexploited soundness bug in the last 24 months, or upgrades by a security council or governance with under a 7-day exit windowmedium confidenceHow this is scored

Durability

10 / 15

Is it big, proven and reachable by institutions?

Scale ×1
4

$2.3B market cap (band 4), $261.8M/day median volume (band 4), no flags.

Major: $1-10B market cap and $50M/day+How this is scored

Track record ×1
4

8.9 years counting from LEND (Nov 2017, migrated 100:1 in Oct 2020); fell over 95% in 2018-19 and 93% (May 2021 to Jun 2022); no $50M+ exploit.

8-10 years and two such cyclesmedium confidenceHow this is scored

Institutional access ×1
2

Grayscale filed Feb 13, 2026 to convert its Aave Trust into an NYSE Arca ETF (GAVE), still pending; Bitwise filed too; Valour Aave ETP in Europe.

OTC trust, non-US product, or a pending US filinghigh confidenceHow this is scored

What would move it up

To reach T3 Mixed, one gate is still open:

  • Value engine 1needs 2(open)
  • Score 55gate 40(met)
  • Adoption 5gate 2(met)
  • Supply 4gate 1(met)

Tier outlook

Could move up ↑low likelihood

  • Holder routing rises to 3 if bought AAVE is burned or paid to stakers instead of parked in the Ecosystem Reserve
  • Holder routing stays at 2 until buybacks resume; none since Jun 24, 2026
  • Revenue holds the $25-100M band as borrow fees soften (~$61M annualized from the last 30 days)
  • Access rises to 3 if Grayscale's GAVE conversion, filed Feb 13, 2026, is approved
  • Security rises to 3 if routine upgrades carry a 7+ day exit window instead of the ~1-day short executor

Compare with

How the ranking works and how AAVE compares: see the full ranking. This entry as JSON:

GET https://tokens.10102.io/api/v1/tokenomics?symbol=AAVE