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PENDLE

Pendle · Yield tokenization

27 /100
T5Impaired · #63 of 77
No engine yetCould move up ↑low likelihoodReviewed Oct 23, 2026
DemandSoundnessDurability
12 of 457 of 408 of 15

Key facts

SupplyFloat 62% of issued supply
  • Circulating 173.9M, 62%
  • Locked or unvested 107.7M, 38%
  • No cap: supply can keep growing, see Supply discipline
FDV / market cap
1.6x
$570.6M / $352.4M
Market cap
$352.4M
Price $2.03, 7d −3.7%

Market data: CoinGecko, Oct 24, 2026. Scores reviewed Oct 23, 2026.

Assessment

Pendle's engine is a real but shrinking cash flow: 80% of protocol revenue buys PENDLE for sPENDLE stakers through parameter-fixed, epoch-mechanical buybacks, but revenue runs ~$6M/yr in Oct 2026 against $14.7M over the trailing year, with TVL down 92% from the Sep 2025 peak. Team and investor vesting is complete, yet insiders and a team-run ecosystem fund took ~45%. The pools are immutable, but a 3-of-5 team Safe owns the router holding user approvals, with no timelock. What holds it back is mint authority: the contract mints a coded 2%/yr terminal inflation, and a 3-of-5 governance Safe can reset that rate with no coded limit.

How value reaches holders

80% of protocol revenue (5% of YT yield, 80% of AMM swap fees, plus early Boros funding-rate fees) buys PENDLE by hourly TWAP and is paid pro-rata to active sPENDLE stakers every 14 days; 10% treasury, 10% ops. sPENDLE replaced vePENDLE on Jan 20, 2026 (14-day exit, or instant for a 5% fee). Oct 19, 2026: revenue ~$0.48M/30d (~$6M/yr; $14.7M trailing year) on $1.1B TVL vs $13.4B at the Sep 2025 peak; Q3 buybacks ~$1.4M

Score anatomy

Demand

12 / 45: the stronger of two routes, plus adoption

Why would anyone hold it: does value reach the token, and is the network or product used today?

Holder routing engine input
4

Plumbing at 50%+, or 100% via contract but governance-revocable

How this is scored

Revenue reality engine input
2

~$6M/yr run-rate in Oct 2026 vs $14.7M trailing year; TVL down 92% from the Sep 2025 peak

$5-25M/yrHow this is scored

Monetary usage engine input
0

Governance and sPENDLE staking only; PENDLE posted at third-party lenders is ~$0.6M (Dolomite), immaterial.

Trading onlyhigh confidenceHow this is scored

Adoption ×3
1

Pendle fees $14.9M TTM vs $39.3M the year before (-62%), 30d fees -89% YoY and TVL down 92% from the Sep 2025 peak: usage down 60%+ caps it at 1

Marginal or fading: negligible use for its size, usage down 60%+ year on year, or a lost forkhigh confidenceHow this is scored

Two routes, the stronger counts

0123451.50cash flowmoney
Revenue 2, minus 0.5 for routing 4 = cash flow 1.5. Money use 0. The engine is the stronger route: 1.5.

Soundness

7 / 40

Can a long-term holder trust the rules: supply, float, distribution and control?

Supply discipline ×3
0

Contract mints a coded 2%/yr terminal inflation (claims lag, week 204 of ~287), but a 3-of-5 governance Safe can reset the rate with no coded limit after a config delay (read Oct 23, 2026).

Over 15%/yr, or a key, company, committee or multisig can mint without limit or redirect issuancemedium confidenceHow this is scored

Float and unlocks ×1
3

Float 62% (173.9M of 281.5M); team and investor vesting is complete, but ecosystem and treasury balances hold the rest with no release schedule.

0.5-1.5% per month, or large foundation or treasury holdings without a schedulemedium confidenceHow this is scored

Distribution ×2
1

Team 17.7%, investors 12.1% (2021 seed), advisors 0.8%, team-run ecosystem fund 14.8%: ~45%; 49% via liquidity incentives; no public sale at seed terms

Insiders received 25-50%, or one organization directs 10-30%medium confidenceHow this is scored

Decentralization and security ×2
1

Pendle markets are immutable, but a 3-of-5 team Safe owns the router that holds user approvals and the PENDLE governance role, with no timelock or binding vote (read Oct 23, 2026)

A halt, rollback or exploited consensus bug in the last 24 months, attack cost under $10M, or a foundation-selected validator set or small multisig can halt or upgrade with no meaningful exit windowmedium confidenceHow this is scored

Durability

8 / 15

Is it big, proven and reachable by institutions?

Scale ×1
3

$359.5M market cap (band 3), $58.4M/day median volume (band 4), no flags.

Mid-cap: $250M-1B market cap and $10M/day+How this is scored

Track record ×1
3

Token launched Apr 2021 (5.5 years); fell ~98% from its 2021 high to the 2022 low and 87% from $7.54 (Apr 2024); no $50M+ protocol exploit.

5-8 years and survived an 80%+ drawdownmedium confidenceHow this is scored

Institutional access ×1
2

Valour Pendle ETP in Europe; no US spot filing found; spot on Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, OKX, Bybit and Upbit.

OTC trust, non-US product, or a pending US filinghigh confidenceHow this is scored

What would move it up

To reach T4 Speculative, one gate is still open:

  • Supply 0needs 1(open)

Tier outlook

Could move up ↑low likelihood

  • Supply rises off 0 if the governance Safe's power to reset emissions gets a coded ceiling or moves behind a binding PENDLE vote
  • Revenue holds the $5-25M band only while the run-rate stays above $5M/yr (~$6M in Oct 2026)
  • Security rises to 2 if a timelock gives users an exit window before the team Safe can change the router
  • Holder routing falls if governance moves the 80/10/10 split again, as it did in Sep 2025

Compare with

How the ranking works and how PENDLE compares: see the full ranking. This entry as JSON:

GET https://tokens.10102.io/api/v1/tokenomics?symbol=PENDLE