LIT

Lighter · Perp DEX (app-specific zk-rollup on Ethereum)

47 /100

T3Mixed · #19 of 77

Cash flow routeCould move down ↓medium likelihoodReviewed Oct 23, 2026

DemandSoundnessDurability

24 of 4518 of 405 of 15

Key facts

SupplyFloat 25% of issued supply

Circulating 250.0M, 25%
Locked or unvested 731.9M, 73%
Not yet issued 18.1M, 2%
Max 1.00B

FDV / market cap

3.9x

$3.1B / $779.0M

Market cap

$779.0M

Price $3.12, 7d −2.7%

Market data: CoinGecko, Oct 24, 2026. Scores reviewed Oct 23, 2026.

Assessment

Lighter's engine is a working fee buyback: about 50% of exchange fees fund on-market LIT purchases, ~$28.9M a year as of Oct 19, 2026, and since the June 2026 overhaul bought LIT is burned, at a cadence the team sets. Supply is fixed at 1B, and the ERC-20 has no mint function, owner or proxy. Insiders hold 75% counting the team-directed ecosystem reserve, float is 25%, and linear team and investor vesting starts Dec 27, 2026 at ~13.9M LIT a month, ~5.6% of float. The rollup is Stage 0, with every upgrade so far fast-tracked, and revenue sits close to the $25M line below which the buyback route weakens.

How value reaches holders

About 50% of exchange fees have funded on-market LIT purchases since Jan 6, 2026 (~$28.9M/yr on DefiLlama, Oct 19, 2026); since the June 2026 overhaul bought LIT is burned (first burn 15.6M LIT on Jul 10, 2026), at a team-set cadence. LIT staking earns ~6% APR from the 250M ecosystem reserve, not revenue, so buybacks and staking emission roughly cancel. Team and investor vesting (500M) starts Dec 27, 2026: linear, ~13.9M LIT/month

Score anatomy

Demand

24 / 45: the stronger of two routes, plus adoption

Why would anyone hold it: does value reach the token, and is the network or product used today?

Holder routing engine input

Plumbing at 50%+, or 100% via contract but governance-revocable

How this is scored

Revenue reality engine input

$25-100M/yr

How this is scored

Monetary usage engine input

Staking for fee discounts and buyback exposure; no collateral use.

Trading onlyhigh confidenceHow this is scored

Adoption ×3

Lighter fees $81M TTM in its first full year, OI $0.74B (~4% of on-chain perps) and 30d fees $6M vs Hyperliquid $83M; established number four or five

Established: a meaningful, steady share of its categorymedium confidenceHow this is scored

Two routes, the stronger counts

Revenue 3, minus 0.5 for routing 4 = cash flow 2.5. Money use 0. The engine is the stronger route: 2.5.

Soundness

18 / 40

Can a long-term holder trust the rules: supply, float, distribution and control?

Supply discipline ×3

Fixed 1B: the Lighter ERC-20 has no mint function, owner or proxy (verified source, Oct 23, 2026).

Hard cap or net deflationary by protocol rule, under 1%/yr gross growth, and nobody can mint past the cap or change the schedule short of a hard fork node operators adopthigh confidenceHow this is scored

Float and unlocks ×1

Float 25% (250M of 1B); team and investor vesting (500M) starts Dec 27, 2026 at ~13.9M LIT a month (~5.6% of float), and the 250M ecosystem reserve has no schedule.

Over 3% of float unlocking per month, or under 30% float with ongoing linear unlocksmedium confidenceHow this is scored

Distribution ×2

Team 26% + investors 24% (cliff Dec 27, 2026) and a team-directed 25% ecosystem reserve: 75%; 25% points airdrop to users; no public sale

Insiders received over 50%, or one organization directs over 30% todayhigh confidenceHow this is scored

Decentralization and security ×2

Stage 0: a 3/5 Lighter multisig upgrades with a 21-day delay, but a 4/7 multisig zeroes it and every upgrade so far was fast-tracked; pause guardians can halt; forced exit only via desert mode after 14 days

A halt, rollback or exploited consensus bug in the last 24 months, attack cost under $10M, or a foundation-selected validator set or small multisig can halt or upgrade with no meaningful exit windowhigh confidenceHow this is scored

Durability

5 / 15

Is it big, proven and reachable by institutions?

Scale ×1

$845.4M market cap (band 3), $89.7M/day median volume (band 4), no flags.

Mid-cap: $250M-1B market cap and $10M/day+How this is scored

Track record ×1

TGE late Dec 2025 (team cliff Dec 27, 2026): under 1 year.

Under 1 yearmedium confidenceHow this is scored

Institutional access ×1

Bitwise Lighter Staking ETP listed on Xetra (Sep 24, 2026); no US filing found.

OTC trust, non-US product, or a pending US filingmedium confidenceHow this is scored

What would move it up

To reach T2 Strong, 4 gates are still open:

Score 47needs 55(open)
Value engine 2.5needs 3(open)
Security 1needs 2(open)
Distribution 0needs 1(open)
Adoption 3gate 3(met)
Supply 5gate 2(met)
Float and unlocks 1gate 1(met)
Scale 3gate 3(met)

Tier outlook · next trigger Dec 27, 2026

Could move down ↓medium likelihood

Revenue falls a band, taking the engine below 2, if trailing buyback revenue drops under $25M/yr (~$28.9M on Oct 19, 2026)
Overhang: linear team and investor vesting from Dec 27, 2026 at ~13.9M LIT a month (~5.6% of float)
Routing: a published, recurring burn cadence net of the ~6% staking emission from the ecosystem reserve
Security rises to 2 if upgrades stop being fast-tracked and the 21-day delay holds as a real exit window
Track record reaches 1 in late Dec 2026, a year after the TGE

Research report

Sep 29, 2026 · source confidence 75%

Lighter does send its fees to token holders: since January 2026 all exchange fees buy LIT on the market, and since a June overhaul the purchased tokens are burned, starting with 15.6 million LIT in July. The flow is real but small against the valuation, about $29 million a year of buybacks against a market cap near $1.1 billion and a fully diluted value near $4.5 billion, and staking rewards paid from the ecosystem reserve roughly offset it. The dominant fact is supply: 500 million team and investor tokens start vesting after a cliff on December 27, 2026, at roughly 13 million a month for three years, which doubles the float in about 18 months. The token roughly tripled between June and September on the Robinhood Chain integration and a staking ETP listing, while fees remained about 7% of Hyperliquid's. Things to watch: whether burns become recurring, Premium fee growth, and how the market absorbs the first unlocks.

Structure (14 facts)

What it is: perp DEX as application-specific zk-rollup L2 on Ethereum; free retail trading, verifiable matching; perps partner of Robinhood Chain since 2026-07-01
TGE: 2025-12-30
Max supply: 1,000,000,000
Circulating supply (approx): 250,000,000
Market cap (approx): $1,116,000,000
Fees usd30d: $5,250,000
Revenue usd30d: $4,460,000
Holders revenue usd30d: $2,800,000
Holders revenue usd1y: $28,900,000
Value accrual: All exchange fees fund on-market LIT buybacks since 2026-01-06 (~16M LIT for ~$23M by Jul 2026); since the June 2026 overhaul bought LIT is burned: 15,638,702 LIT burned 2026-07-10 (~6.3% of float), no published cadence after that. Retail trades free; fees come from Premium accounts (0.004% maker / 0.028% taker)
Staking: ~110.7M LIT staked (Jul 2026); ~6% APR target paid in LIT from the 250M ecosystem reserve (not revenue), roughly offsetting buybacks; staking also discounts Premium fees 2.5-30%
Unlocks: team + investors (500M) cliff 2026-12-27, then ~12.8-13.5M LIT/month linear for 3 years (to late 2029), doubling the float in ~18 months; 250M ecosystem reserve has no published schedule
Market share: 30d fees $5.2M vs Hyperliquid $72.7M and Aster $6.0M (DefiLlama, 2026-09-29); OI ~$0.6B on DefiLlama vs ~$8.2B Hyperliquid (a secondary source says ~$1.6B; unreconciled, possibly Robinhood Chain flow)
Catalysts: Robinhood Chain integration ($7.3B routed Jul-Sep 2026, ~17% of daily volume), Bitwise Lighter Staking ETP on Xetra (2026-09-24), prediction-market circuits in development; no Season 3 announced

Market figures at report date (Sep 29, 2026)

Price (approx): $4.47
FDV (approx): $4,465,000,000
All-time high / low: 7.86 (2025-12-30)

Sources (8)

Compare with

How the ranking works and how LIT compares: see the full ranking. This entry as JSON:

GET https://tokens.10102.io/api/v1/tokenomics?symbol=LIT