AR
Arweave · Permanent storage
Score qualifies for T3; held by Value engine 1 (needs 2), Adoption 1 (needs 2).
Key facts
- Circulating 65.7M, 99%
- Not yet issued 347.5K, 1%
- Max 66.0M
Market data: CoinGecko, Oct 24, 2026. Scores reviewed Oct 23, 2026.
Assessment
Arweave has no direct fee claim: uploads lock ~86% of each fee in the storage endowment, a sink of ~103k AR a year, and AR's only monetary role is paying for storage. Supply is nearly complete: 65.7M of a 66M cap is issued and circulating, changeable only by a fork miners adopt. The record covers 8.4 years with drawdowns of 91% and 99% and no rollback. Private and presale buyers, the team, advisors and project reserves took ~77% of AR issued, and an attack on mining capacity is estimated at $10-100M. What holds it back is demand: weave growth fell from ~130 GB a day to ~33 GB.
How value reaches holders
No direct fee claim, but every upload locks ~86% of the fee in the storage endowment (a usage-driven supply sink); 66M hard cap with ~0.35M left to issue; AR holders receive 36% of all AO minting. Endowment grew from 263.9k AR (Aug 2025) to 366.7k AR (Sep 2026), ~103k AR/yr locked (~0.16% of supply)
Score anatomy
Demand
9 / 45: the stronger of two routes, plus adoptionWhy would anyone hold it: does value reach the token, and is the network or product used today?
Approved or designed but inert, indirect sinks only, or flows into a treasury or endowment
Under $0.5M/yr, or emissions-subsidized only
AR pays for permanent storage (fees into the endowment), a fee role; no third-party collateral use.
Pays its own network's fees (gas never counts higher, whatever the size of the economy)high confidenceHow this is scored
Arweave uploads fell from ~130 GB/day to ~33 GB/day and fees -81% YoY ($0.32M TTM): down 60%+ caps it at 1
Marginal or fading: negligible use for its size, usage down 60%+ year on year, or a lost forkhigh confidenceHow this is scored
Two routes, the stronger counts
Soundness
24 / 40Can a long-term holder trust the rules: supply, float, distribution and control?
66M hard cap with ~0.35M AR left to issue (under 0.6% in total); the cap and schedule change only by a fork adopted by miners.
Hard cap or net deflationary by protocol rule, under 1%/yr gross growth, and nobody can mint past the cap or change the schedule short of a hard fork node operators adopthigh confidenceHow this is scored
Fully diluted: 65.7M of 65.7M issued AR circulates, with no vesting.
Fully vested, no scheduled unlockshigh confidenceHow this is scored
Of the 55M genesis: private sale 19.5% and presale 10.8%, team 13%, advisors 2.9%, ecosystem 19.1%, future project use 26.5%; public sales only 8.2%: insiders ~77% of the 65.7M AR issued
Insiders received over 50%, or one organization directs over 30% todaymedium confidenceHow this is scored
Mining needs packed replicas of the weave plus hashing; with AR at ~$3.80 a majority of that capacity is estimated at $10-100M; no halt (Feb 2026 stall reports were stale explorer data)
Attack cost $10-100M, an unexploited soundness bug in the last 24 months, or upgrades by a security council or governance with under a 7-day exit windowlow confidenceHow this is scored
Durability
8 / 15Is it big, proven and reachable by institutions?
$242.9M market cap (band 2), $14.8M/day median volume (band 3), no flags.
Small: $50-250M market cap and $1M/day+How this is scored
Mainnet Jun 8, 2018 (8.4 years); fell 91% (May to Jul 2021) and 99% ($91 Nov 2021 to $1.26 Oct 2025); no network rollback found.
8-10 years and two such cyclesmedium confidenceHow this is scored
Valour Arweave ETP in Europe; no US filing found.
OTC trust, non-US product, or a pending US filinghigh confidenceHow this is scored
What would move it up
To reach T3 Mixed, 2 gates are still open:
- Value engine 1needs 2(open)
- Adoption 1needs 2(open)
- Score 41gate 40(met)
- Supply 5gate 1(met)
Tier outlook
Stable
- Revenue rises off 0 only if storage fees pass $0.5M a year (~$1.2K a day in mid-2026)
- Holder routing: the endowment lock rate tracks permaweb uploads (~33 GB/day over the six months to Sep 2026)
- Scale rises to 3 if market cap clears $250M ($242.9M on Oct 23, 2026)
- Usage stays at 1 while ecosystem demand moves to ARIO on Solana and Irys rather than AR
Research report
Sep 17, 2026 · source confidence 65%Effectively fully diluted (65.65M of a 66M cap) with no vesting, and structurally scarce: every upload locks most of its fee in the storage endowment rather than paying it out. The constraint is demand. Data added to the weave slowed from roughly 130 GB a day in the second half of 2025 to about 33 GB a day over the six months to September 2026, which locks around 0.16% of supply a year, and the trailing-year fee total on DefiLlama is a few hundred thousand dollars. Adjacent value has moved into separate tokens: AO for compute and ARIO (now on Solana) for gateways and names, while Irys, formerly the main Arweave bundler, runs its own chain.
Structure (10 facts)
- Chain
- arweave (native)
- What it is
- permanent storage network with a storage endowment; AO compute layer distributes 36% of AO minting to AR holders by design
- Max supply
- 66,000,000
- Circulating supply (approx)
- 65,650,000
- Market cap (approx)
- $181,000,000
- Unlocks
- ~0.35M AR left to emit; effectively fully diluted, no vesting
- Value accrual
- uploads pay AR, ~86% locked in the storage endowment (not burned): endowment 263.9k AR (Aug 26 2025) to 366.7k AR (Sept 18 2026), ~103k AR/yr locked (~0.16% of supply, ~$280k). Upload price ~$0.038/GiB
- Usage
- weave 360.2 TB (Aug 2025) to 385.2 TB (Mar 2026) to 391.6 TB (Sept 2026): ~130 GB/day in H2 2025, ~33 GB/day over the last six months (~$1.2k/day in fees). DefiLlama fees ~$333k trailing year
- Ecosystem
- AO mainnet since Feb 8 2025, AO ~$17M mcap; ar.io ARIO token is now an SPL token on Solana (gateway/ArNS economics accrue to ARIO, not AR); Irys (ex-Bundlr) runs its own L1 datachain
- Liquidity
- ~$11M/day
Market figures at report date (Sep 17, 2026)
- Price (approx)
- $2.76
- FDV (approx)
- $181,000,000
- All-time high / low
- ~89 (2021-11, -97%); 1-yr low 1.50 (2026-03-04)
Compare with
How the ranking works and how AR compares: see the full ranking. This entry as JSON:
GET https://tokens.10102.io/api/v1/tokenomics?symbol=AR